As promised, here is the next Q4 update. These updates are here to help you navigate Q4 realistically and keep you focused on what matters during this period.
My Q4 has been fine so far. October ended up being a record month for my business in terms of gross profit, but I put that down mainly to increased spend rather than a Q4 spike. October started strong, dropped off mid-month, then picked up again at the end. This is normal. October is technically Q4 on the calendar, but it does not behave like true Q4 in terms of consumer behavior. Most people are not buying Christmas presents in October.
This Month So Far
At the start of November, I saw a large spike in sales and I initially thought Q4 was going to take off straight away. It has since slowed down again. This may partly be stock dependent, but from experience, this is likely due to typical consumer buying patterns.
A lot of people will:
- Get paid at the end of October.
- Pay bills and expenses.
- Then begin Christmas shopping mid-November onwards.
This means an early November lull is normal. Some sellers may not notice this depending on their inventory, but this pattern has been consistent for me and many others. It is not a sign of anything going wrong and it is not a reason to panic.
What You Should Be Doing Right Now
Right now is when you need to be spending aggressively. Every penny you can put into your business should be going into Q4 stock.
The focus should be on:
- Toys
- Fragrances
- Gift sets
- General gifting items such as small kitchen appliances, personal care, branded accessories, etc.
The key principle for Q4 is simple:
If it can be gifted, it will sell.
How to Identify Strong Q4 Products
Look at:
- Previous Q4 sales history
Check how the item performed last year. - Sales rank movement during November and December
Increased velocity is a clear sign of seasonal demand. - Price history during Q4
Many products rise significantly in price due to sellers going out of stock and increased demand.
While past performance does not guarantee future performance, it is one of the best indicators available and is far more reliable than guesswork.
Use:
- Keepa Charts
- SAS Data
- Previous Q4 data patterns
This will help you narrow in on the right products rather than guessing.
Where to Source Right Now
There are a lot of sales happening currently. Many retailers run “Black Friday month” instead of a single weekend.
Key stores to monitor:
- Argos
- BargainMax
- Smyths Toys
- The Entertainer
- Fragrance Shop
- Notino
- Boots
- Superdrug
- Online toy stores
This is where the volume will come from. Stay consistent with checking deals and running your sourcing systems.
Timing Matters
Stock you are buying right now will realistically be:
- Purchased → shipped → checked in → sellable
towards the end of November.
This timing is perfect. The next two weeks are the most important purchasing weeks of the entire year. Go as heavy as your business can sensibly allow, focusing on products with Q4 history and good gifting products.
Final Thoughts
The next couple of weeks will make your Q4. This is the buying phase that determines the profit you will see in late November and throughout December. Push your spend, focus on gifting products, look at historical Q4 data, Do not hesitate.
The work you put in now is what will make your Q4!
